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Grocery Channel Executive Summary for Q1 2024


$551B

Sales for 2023

+1.7%

Dollar Sales Trend for L52 Wks 2023 vs. 2022

+5.8%

Grocery Channel avg pricing 2023 vs. 2022

94%

HH Penetration of Conventional Grocery

65

Trips per HH for Conventional Grocery (+2 trips)

$40

Average basket at Conventional Grocery

Sources: NielsenIQ Scanning and Homescan Panel Total US Food CY 2023, Company Press Releases, Numerator Visions 2024, Progressive Grocer, Circana, and others.


Grocery Channel

What do we know?

  • Grocery channel still growing +1.9%; prices remain elevated and units remain challenged despite the rate of inflation leveling off. 

  • Grocery sales remain strong but long-term share is slipping. Grocery held a 43.3% share of sales and nearly all retailers are reporting single-digit growth for the latest quarter (Ahold Delhaize, Publix, Albertson). Kroger is reporting flat sales growth – inflation is causing slowed growth. 

  • Conventional Grocery reaches 94% of the US for penetration (top across channels) and is experiencing growth on spend and trips as income rises.

What does it mean?

  • Maintaining a strong presence in Grocery is essential, as the channel still wins top prize for most trips (and growing) and highest reach. 

  • Consumers are moving fluidly between in-store and online. Growth will come from a balance of both strategies. 

  • In addition to an in-store and online strategy, promoting with a purpose is key. Concentrating on short-term gains will undermine long-term profitability.


Grocery Shopper

What do we know?

  • Pressured consumers have adapted their habits to address inflation. Wallet shifts are leaning more toward life essentials (including FMCG) vs. discretionary categories like out-of-home eating or entertainment. 

  • Categories benefiting from these wallet shifts are fresh produce & fresh meat, dairy, and health and wellness products. For example, performance nutrition is the fastest-growing category in Grocery. 

  • Consumers are shopping more frequently at Value retailers, who are seeing share gains at the expense of Grocery.Value grocers (like Aldi) are being added into consumers’ Grocery shopping options, mainly due to affordability. 

What does it mean?

  • Growth in pressured times means navigating consumers’ trade-offs. Use what is important to consumers (ie brands that have value and are a good alternative) for growth. 

  • Health-empowered shoppers choose where to shop based on where they can find the best goods that meet their wellness goals. Grocery retailers can take advantage of that growth to make the channel a convenient place to purchase all needs. 

  • Value retailers are on the rise. Differentiate by executing a tiered pricing or brand strategy to cater to varying levels of affordability.

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For a deeper dive and tailored insights that can accelerate your brand’s growth in this channel, reach out to Liz DiMaria at liz.dimaria@mpgllc.com for a conversation.

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